The healthcare industry in the United States requires strategic planning, targeted recruitment, and innovative approaches to meet the nation’s healthcare demands. Mercer, a global consulting leader in health and workforce management, has forecasted a complex future for healthcare labor by 2028, revealing a mixed landscape of shortages and surpluses across various regions and specializations. While the workforce is expected to grow, specific fields and geographical areas will face acute deficits, particularly in the face of increasing demand for care.
Projected Healthcare Workforce by 2028
By 2028, the total supply of healthcare workers is projected to reach 18.6 million, but this figure belies a looming shortage in several key areas. Mercer estimates that there will be a shortage of more than 100,000 healthcare workers across the U.S., with the strain felt most acutely in areas where healthcare demand continues to increase. This gap will be driven by various factors, including the aging population, increasing chronic conditions, and ongoing burnout among healthcare providers, exacerbated by the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The fields of physicians and registered nurses (RNs), while growing, are expected to face regional disparities in supply and demand. Nationally, both professions are expected to experience modest growth, with RNs projected to see a surplus of around 30,000 by 2028. However, in key states like California, Texas, and New York, there will be a significant deficit of physicians, while states like Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Minnesota are expected to have a surplus. Similarly, shortages of RNs will be most severe in New York, Tennessee, and Massachusetts, underscoring the geographic imbalances in healthcare labor distribution.
Uneven Growth Among Healthcare Professions
While some healthcare roles are poised for growth, others will see slower increases in workforce numbers, contributing to sector-specific shortages. Nurse practitioners (NPs) are expected to grow at the fastest annual rate among healthcare occupations, helping to alleviate some of the pressure in primary care and specialized settings. However, nursing assistants, who provide critical support in many healthcare environments, are expected to grow at the slowest rate. This stagnation may exacerbate already troubling shortages in long-term care facilities and hospitals, where nursing assistants are integral to patient care.
Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted and, in many ways, accelerated the healthcare workforce crisis. During the pandemic, the healthcare industry lost over 100,000 workers between 2020 and 2022 due to high rates of burnout, workplace violence, and overwhelming staffing pressures. The combination of these factors led to elevated levels of attrition, a trend that may continue without significant intervention.
Burnout, in particular, remains a persistent issue that healthcare organizations must address. Mercer emphasizes the importance of early intervention to prevent burnout from spiraling into widespread attrition. The “endless spiral of attrition” refers to the cycle where overburdened workers leave the industry, which then increases the workload on remaining staff, further accelerating burnout and turnover.
Strategic Responses to Workforce Shortages
Healthcare employers will need to take proactive steps to manage workforce challenges, including addressing burnout, fine-tuning compensation strategies, and expanding recruitment efforts beyond traditional geographic boundaries. Here are some key strategies that could mitigate the impact of shortages:
- Employee Well-Being and Burnout Management
To prevent a recurrence of the pandemic-era workforce exodus, healthcare employers must prioritize the well-being of their current employees. As the Mercer report highlights, burnout is a major driver of attrition. Therefore, healthcare systems should refine their employee value propositions, emphasizing not only competitive pay and benefits but also offering flexibility in scheduling, career growth opportunities, and overall job satisfaction. Such efforts can help retain existing staff and attract new talent.
- Geographic Flexibility in Recruitment
With significant geographic disparities in healthcare labor supply, healthcare organizations may need to adjust their recruitment strategies to draw talent from less constrained regions. For instance, states with a surplus of healthcare workers, such as Pennsylvania and Indiana, could be targeted to meet shortages in high-demand areas like California and New York. This kind of flexible, region-focused recruitment could help address gaps in workforce availability more effectively than during the pandemic when labor shortages were more widespread.
- Compensation and Labor Relations
As shortages intensify, employee pressure on compensation is likely to continue. Workers in the healthcare industry have already mobilized for higher wages and improved benefits through union strikes and collective bargaining. Last year, more than 85,000 Kaiser Permanente workers staged the largest healthcare strike in decades, demanding and ultimately securing a 21% wage increase over four years. This event underscores the growing assertiveness of healthcare workers, and employers should be prepared to navigate future labor negotiations that reflect the heightened demand for fair compensation amid shortages.
Long-Term Impacts and Future Considerations
While the healthcare industry has weathered workforce shortages in the past, the post-pandemic environment presents unique challenges. Increased patient loads, the need for advanced care in an aging population, and the ongoing effects of mental health crises are just a few factors putting pressure on healthcare systems. The shortages projected by 2028 will require both short- and long-term strategies to maintain the quality and accessibility of care across the country.
Looking ahead, it will be crucial for healthcare systems to invest in workforce development, especially for professions like nursing assistants and nurse practitioners. Expanding training programs, offering incentives for healthcare professionals to work in underserved areas, and leveraging technology to support overburdened staff can help build a more resilient healthcare workforce.
The future of healthcare in the U.S. depends not only on the number of workers but also on their distribution, satisfaction, and support. By addressing the root causes of attrition and creating a more flexible, geographically adaptable workforce, the industry can better navigate the challenges posed by workforce shortages — ensuring that healthcare remains accessible, equitable, and effective for all Americans.
The projected shortage of over 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028 is a stark reminder of the challenges that lie ahead for the healthcare industry. While some regions and specialties may experience surpluses, the geographic and sectoral disparities highlight the need for targeted strategies to address these imbalances.
Discover more from Doctor Trusted
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
